Dr. Forbush Thinks

I have recently written about predicting the future based on the cycles of history.

This is based on a book written in 1990 by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It is called, “Generations: the history of America's future, 1584-2069”. The book has altered the way I think about history and why people do what they do. We easily acknowledge the fact that people are influenced by what the surrounding culture finds acceptable and unacceptable. If this wasn’t the case, then people wouldn’t try so hard to change how people look at the world. Religious leaders scream and yell at their congregations, telling them how they should change their ways, but when people go back out into the secular world they are drawn into the secular culture and they participate in the secular world ignoring the words of the preacher. This is why so many religious leaders have targeted “Hollywood” and “secularism” as evils that are a threat to our culture.

The reality of the situation is that these very same preachers are part of the larger woven culture of our society. As has been happening for at least the last four hundred years there is a cycle of ebb and flow in our society. Religion is part of that ebb and flow as is the secular world as well.

Man by his nature seeks to solve problems. The trouble is that there are a large number of problems and there are a large number of solutions to those problems. Man seeks to fix problems in broad terms as well as specific ways. And, on the broadest level of all we tend to choose between getting everyone to work together to solve the problems or do we get everyone to take responsibility and solve their problems on their own. A large number of problems can be solved with team work, and also a large number of problems can be solved by assigning ownership of a problem. The problem is that not all problems can be solved in the same way.

The cycle described by Strauss and Howe has two extremes in this respect. There is a time when society believes that teamwork can solve every problem and there is a time when society believes that ownership can solve every problem. Now, of course not every person in society looks at the world the same way. Some people align themselves with the popular majority and some people align themselves with the minority. So, when the majority believes in teamwork the minority is still echoing the positive nature of personal responsibility and vice versa. And, religion plays a major role in this cycle.

Since we are talking about a cycle here the current situation is always evolving. Children born today have parents with different experiences than their parents and so forth. So, let me describe this in our current history beginning with World War II. World War II was a crowning moment for the cooperation of our society. We worked together in a major effort where people sacrificed themselves for the society as a whole. This was possible because the Culture was primed to do this through the experiences of the past leading up to that moment. People learned by experience through the Great Depression that working together paid off as work was created through the efforts of society at large. So, it was a natural progression to realized that everyone needed to sacrifice themselves just a little bit more until their efforts paid off.

After the crisis was over this generation of people continued to believe that working together could solve even more problems, like medical discoveries, poverty, racism, and even landing a man on the Moon. The question became: “Just what couldn’t be done through cooperation?” Well, all of this cooperation requires a lot of discipline. And, discipline requires an effort that takes away from personal time and personal reflection. Religion becomes something that you do to get it done with so that you can get on with the important things. Memorized prayers and standard sermons filled the churches. There was a great emptiness in the American culture. And, when emptiness abounds those who feel empty invoke the ills of society as the problem. The natural thing for one to do is revolt against the societal order and then reflect on one’s personal relationship to the world. And as people across the country began to do this many discoveries about our society came to light. Some insight was good and some insight was bad. Efforts to change society erupted everywhere. This is known as an awakening. The majority in the society begins to believe that society is flawed on a basic level and changing one’s personal life will eventually filter to the society as a whole. However, when a multitude of individuals create a multitude of individual ways of doing things the organized order in society breaks down. The break down in order creates inefficiency and society doesn’t function as smoothly as it did when everyone knew their place and did as they had been taught. The lack of organization becomes the pole that begins to demand more order.

Since religion offers both an organized component and an individual reflection component it is the most likely place in society where this can be achieved. Man yearns to find meaning and purpose in the complex machinery of society. Man searches and explores for this meaning through alternative lifestyles and religious movements. Organized religion offers organized answers in an easy to digest way. As time goes on the easy answers become an easy way to deal with the complexity of a complex world. Religion teaches us how organization is a solution to religious problems and people eventually realize that working together solves secular problems as well. As problems arise teamwork pays off and problems are solved. And once again man has rediscovered cooperation solves larger problems.

This cycle has played out four times in the history of America, roughly 88 years in duration. And as far as we can tell it continues to play out even today.

The interesting thing is that with this new insight I begin to view history this way and even the books that I read. I am currently reading Alice McDermott’s “After This,” which is a book about a family that roughly follows the time I outlined above. She goes into some detail about each time period by telling some short stories that all fit together. For example, she tells the story of a date in the late 1940s and then she tells another story of a date in the early 1970s as to show the extreme changes in those 25 years. Alice shows us the contrast in our society by telling these stories, but now armed with this generational information I begin to understand a little bit more as to what these people might be thinking that make them decide to do the things they do.

I have also been thinking about this cycle in the terms of whether the cycle is “good” or “bad.” Of course there are “good” aspects and “bad” aspects of the cycle. Each time a group lives through the cycle they believe that they are inventing these things for the first time, but the truth is that people before them have explored many of these ideas and come to similar conclusions. And, as history continues chances are good that this will continue. The cycle can only be broken when the society as a whole realizes that the cycle exists. Or more specifically the society as a whole realizes that organized society and internal reflection are both important aspects for living a “good” life. For example, people need to explore alternative lifestyles, but they need to realize the value of established lifestyles. And, of course it is nearly impossible for a culture to embrace two polar ideas as being equally valid. But, until society comes to that conclusion we will continue to follow the cycle.




-----------------------------------------------------





Don't forget what Stephen Colbert said, "Reality has a well-known liberal bias."


Cross Posted @ Bring It On, tblog, Blogger and BlogSpirit



Politics