Dr. Forbush Thinks

Abracadabra is the magic word that makes things go your way. Magical thinking means that you believe in the magic word that makes everything all right. We have all seen magicians use their magic words and make the world bend to their whims. So, we all must believe in magic, right?

Ya, Right!

In the real world we all know that magic is based on illusion. Magic is a performance art where the magician deceives the audience by creating an idea that is believable to the viewer, until the trick is performed and the audience sees what it can not believe. And, politics is all about the same thing - deception.

If you have turned on the TV, read the newspaper or listened to the radio in the last week you are aware of the dangerous escalation of the US troops in Iraq. President George W Bush announced this escalation as a surge in troops that is needed to quell the insurgents, bring order to society and help the infant Iraqi government establish legitimacy. We are all aware of the number of troops needed to accomplish this magic. The president himself reached into his hat and pulled out the magic number and told us that 21,500 troops would be the magic word. In the buildup to his now famous talk the number for the troop increase was tossed around. “Maybe 10,000 troops could be added,” one talk show host suggested. At another time I heard a talk show host, suggest that between 10,000 and as high as 20,000 troops could be added in a temporary surge. Well, by the time the president gave his speech we knew that the top end would be around 20,000 troops. So, when George W Bush announced an increase of 21,500 troops we all knew that he was serious about this conflict in Iraq.

But, is this really such a change from the status quo? How have troop levels varied over the course of the war? How do we know if this is such a big deal if we don’t know how much this is changing the “stay the course” strategy that has failed so far?

Well, we know that the current troop levels are at about 132,000 total as of January, 2007. This number has been thrown around so that everyone knows what we are dealing with. But, how have troop levels varied in the course of this war, at least for the US.

In 2003 the troop levels fell off, as we believed that looting and pilaging of the country was an Iraqi police matter and not a concern for the US military.

May 150,000
June 150,000
July 149,000
August 139,00
September 132,000
October 131,000
November 123,000
December 122,000

In 2004 we realized that we needed more troops in Iraq, because we began to fight the insurgents who did not like the idea of their country being occupied by foriegners.

January 122,000
February 115,000
March 130,000
April 137,000
May 138,000
June 138,000
July 140,000
August 140,000
September 138,000
October 138,000
November 138,000
December 148,000

In 2005 the troop numbers continued to rise to their maximum at the end of 2005. This troop increase has been explained as necessary to keep the peace for the Iraqi elections.

January 150,000
February 155,000
March 150,000
April 142, 000
May 138,000
June 135,000
July 138,000
August 138,000
September 138,000
October 152,000
November 160,000
December 160,000

In 2006 the number of troops fell off and surged over the years with amplitude of about 10,000 troops.

January 136,000
February 133,000
March 133,000
April 132,000
May 132,000
June 126,900
July 130,000
August 138,000
September 144,000
October 144,000
November 140,000

So, when George W Bush increases the troops with his 21,500 troops we will have a total of 132 + 21.5 = 153.5 thousand troops. Are 153,500 troops really much different than the number of troops we have had all along? Did the surge to 160,000 troops for two months at the end of 2005 really change very much? How can we expect this similar surge to do much? Isn’t this just another elaborate deception created in order for George W Bush to make us believe that doing the same thing is actually doing something different?

But, if we actually look at the facts here it looks like Bush has painted himself into a corner with this illusion. If you think about this, George W Bush is claiming that doing the same old song and dance is really something new. Now the Democrats and some of the Republicans in congress have taken him up on his illusion suggesting that it is irresponsible to increase the number of troops in such a policy failure. So, the faux choice has now become choose Bush’s plan to escalate troop levels, which really means to keep them the same. And, choose to keep the troop levels the same, which will result in a win for the Doves on this issue, even if the troop levels end up creeping up as they have in the past anyway.

This entire troop level argument illustrates the way the politicians end up doing what they want while they change what they say to the public.


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Don't forget what Stephen Colbert said, "Reality has a well-known liberal bias."


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